Antoine Genest-Gregoire
universedev1
Antoine Genest-Gregoire is an assistant professor of the Department of Taxation at the University of Sherbrooke and a researcher under its Research Chair in Taxation and Public Finance.
He studies the distributional effects and public perceptions of tax policy using surveys and administrative tax data. This includes work on tax incentives, tax literacy, tax compliance, the simplicity of Canadian tax returns, treatment of capital gains and middle-class perceptions.
He has published in the National Tax Journal, the Canadian Tax Journal and Canadian Public Policy. His research has received widespread Canadian media attention and he provides regular commentary on current tax policy issues in both French and English.
A recipient of both federal and Québec public funding for his research, Antoine holds a Ph.D. from Carleton University.
David Duff
universedev1
David G. Duff is Professor of Law and Director of the Tax LLM program at the Peter A. Allard School of Law at the University of British Columbia. David has published numerous articles on tax law and policy, is the lead author of Canadian Income Tax Law (7th ed., 2022) and Taxation of Business Organizations in Canada (3rd ed. forthcoming, 2026) and the sole author of International Tax Law in Canada (2024).
He is a member and former governor of the Canadian Tax Foundation, a member of the International Fiscal Association and the governing council of the Canadian branch of the International Fiscal Association, a member of the editorial board of the Canadian Tax Journal, co-editor of the Current Tax Reading section of the Canadian Tax Journal and an International Research Fellow of the Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
Now Hiring – Senior Economist
Job posting: Senior Economist
Organization: Canadian Tax Observatory
Location: Remote or Ottawa/hybrid
Position Type: Full-time
Salary Range: $100,000 – $135,000
Closing Date: Jan. 31, 2026
Position Overview:
The Observatory is recruiting for an experienced and insightful economist. This individual will report to the CEO and work closely with the Observatory’s network of experts to identify, analyze and critique burgeoning issues in tax policy in Canada and elsewhere.
The ideal candidate will need to be resourceful, detail-oriented and be willing to look outside the box for data sources. They should have a deep understanding of fiscal policy, tax policy and government process. They should have excellent data and analysis skills and have a proven track record of conducting impactful research. They should also be an excellent communicator having used data visualization and other digital tools to present research findings and analysis. And they should be fluent in French.
Key Duties and Responsibilities:
- Work with the CEO to develop and define research priorities.
- Oversee research and analysis by specifying key questions, identifying data sources, outlining research processes.
- Find, acquire and assess relevant databases and sources of pertinent information.
- Undertake qualitative and quantitative research using advanced statistical modeling and tools.
- Interpret and communicate findings using data visualization, writing and oral presentations.
- Project management.
Qualifications:
- At least seven years of experience in economic research, both qualitative and quantitative.
- Demonstrated track record in publishing economic research and findings.
- Strong data analysis and visualization skills, and ability to distill complex information from a range of sources.
- Experience with stakeholder outreach and relationship management.
- Deep grasp of economic policy priorities and socio-economic challenges in Canada.
- Bilingual in written and spoken French and English.
About the Canadian Tax Observatory:
Established in 2025, the Canadian Tax Observatory is a new, independent non-profit devoted to helping people and policymakers understand the tax system. Through research, public education and collaboration, our goal is to advance a tax system that promotes economic growth, shared prosperity and tax fairness.
We aim to drive an informed public dialogue in pursuit of practical taxation that benefits all Canadians. Through solid, independent research and non-partisan public engagement, we encourage fresh thinking that leads to practical solutions on tax policy.
The founding board of directors includes Chair Matthew Mendelsohn, CEO of Social Capital Partners, Niamh Leonard, Executive Director of Euphrosine Foundation and Jennifer Robson, Professor of Political Management at Carleton University.
The founding CEO is Heather Scoffield, whose expertise lies in informing and driving national conversations on economic policy. Now that she has set up an expert advisory committee and begun initial research, the Observatory is looking for a full-time economist to deepen its research agenda.
Why join the Canadian Tax Observatory?
- Competitive Compensation: a full-time position with a salary in the range of $100,000 – $135,000, based on experience and qualifications, as well as a comprehensive benefits package
- Remote or Hybrid Work Environment: Work from home or explore the possibility of co-working space in Ottawa.
- A Career with Purpose: The Observatory is dedicated to improving the tax system so that it is pro-growth, pro-equality and pro-simplicity. All our work is seen through this lens.
- Commitment of Growth: We will invest in your growth and are committed to positive societal impact.
- Independence: we are looking for a candidate to take control of this opportunity, acting entrepreneurially to achieve our objectives
How to apply:
Please submit your resume and a cover letter outlining your interest and qualifications to info@canadiantaxobservatory.ca. Kindly include “Senior Economist” in your email subject line.
Please note that LinkedIn Easy Apply applications will not be considered.
Applications will close on Jan. 31, 2026.
Commitment to inclusive workplaces and recruitment:
The Canadian Tax Observatory is committed to diversity in our workplace and in our recruitment processes. We encourage applications from members of all racialized groups, gender identities and sexual orientations, Indigenous persons, persons with disabilities, and family status. Accommodations are available upon request for candidates taking part in all aspects of the selection process.
Excited about the role, but you don’t meet every requirement? Research shows that equity-denied groups, including women, racialized people, people from the 2SLGBTQA+ community, and people with diverse abilities are less likely to apply to jobs unless they meet every qualification. If you’re interested in this role but don’t see yourself fully reflected in the requirements of the posting, we still encourage you to apply or reach out to learn more by emailing us.
Offre d’emploi : Économiste principal.e
Organisation : Observatoire canadien de la fiscalité
Emplacement : À domicile ou à Ottawa/hybride
Type de poste : Contrat à temps plein
Échelle salariale : 100 000 $ à 135 000 $
Date de clôture : le 31 janvier 2026
Au sujet du role
L’Observatoire est à la recherche d’un.e économiste expérimenté.e et perspicace. Cette personne relèvera de la PDG et travaillera en étroite collaboration avec le réseau d’experts de l’Observatoire afin d’identifier, d’analyser et d’évaluer les questions émergentes en matière de politique fiscale au Canada et ailleurs.
Le.la candidat.e idéal.e devra être débrouillard.e, soucieux.euse du détail et prêt.e à sortir des sentiers battus pour trouver des sources de données. Il.elle devra avoir une connaissance approfondie de la politique fiscale, de la politique budgétaire et des processus gouvernementaux. Il.elle devra posséder d’excellentes compétences en matière de données et d’analyse et avoir fait ses preuves dans la conduite de recherches percutantes. Il.elle devra également être un.e excellent.e communicateur.trice, ayant utilisé la visualisation de données et d’autres outils numériques pour présenter les résultats et les analyses de ses recherches. Il.elle devra enfin parler couramment le français.
Tâches et responsabilités principales :
- Travailler avec la PDG pour élaborer et définir les priorités en matière de recherche.
- Superviser la recherche et l’analyse en précisant les questions clés, en identifiant les sources de données et en définissant les processus de recherche.
- Rechercher, acquérir et évaluer les bases de données et les sources d’informations pertinentes.
- Entreprendre des recherches qualitatives et quantitatives à l’aide de modèles et d’outils statistiques avancés.
- Interpréter et communiquer les résultats à l’aide de la visualisation des données et de présentations écrites et orales.
- Assurer la gestion de projets.
Compétences et qualifications souhaitées :
- Au moins sept ans d’expérience dans la recherche économique, tant qualitative que quantitative.
- Expérience avérée dans la publication de recherches économiques et de résultats.
- Solides compétences en analyse et en visualisation de données, et capacité à extraire des informations complexes à partir de diverses sources.
- Expérience dans la communication avec les parties prenantes et la gestion des relations.
- Compréhension approfondie des priorités en matière de politique économique et des défis socio-économiques au Canada.
- Bilinguisme écrit et oral en français et en anglais.
À propos de l’Observatoire canadien de la fiscalité
Créé en 2025, l’Observatoire canadien de la fiscalité est un nouvel organisme indépendant à but non lucratif qui a pour mission d’aider le public et les responsables des politiques à comprendre le système fiscal. Grâce à la recherche, à la sensibilisation du public et à la collaboration, notre objectif est de promouvoir un système fiscal qui favorise la croissance économique, la prospérité partagée et l’équité fiscale.
Nous souhaitons susciter un dialogue public éclairé en faveur d’un système fiscal pratique qui profite à l’ensemble de la population du Canada. Grâce à des recherches solides et indépendantes et à un engagement public non partisan, nous encourageons une réflexion nouvelle qui mène à des solutions pratiques en matière de politique fiscale.
Le conseil d’administration fondateur comprend le président Matthew Mendelsohn, PDG de Social Capital Partners, Niamh Leonard, directrice générale de la Fondation Euphrosine, et Jennifer Robson, professeure de gestion politique à l’Université Carleton.
La PDG fondatrice de l’Observatoire est Heather Scoffield, dont l’expertise réside dans l’information et la promotion des débats nationaux sur la politique économique. Maintenant que la PDG a commencé ses premières recherches et a mis en place un comité consultatif d’experts, l’Observatoire cherche à engager un.e économiste à temps plein pour approfondir son programme de recherche.
Pourquoi se joindre à l’Observatoire canadien de la fiscalité ?
- Rémunération compétitive : poste à temps plein avec une échelle salariale entre 100 000 $ et 135 000 $, en fonction de l’expérience et des qualifications, ainsi qu’un ensemble complet d’avantages sociaux.
- Environnement de travail à distance ou hybride : travaillez à domicile ou envisagez un espace communautaire de travail à Ottawa.
- Une carrière qui a du sens : l’Observatoire se consacre à l’amélioration du système fiscal afin qu’il favorise la croissance, l’égalité et la simplicité. Tout notre travail s’inscrit dans cette optique.
- Un engagement envers la croissance : Nous investirons dans votre croissance et nous nous engageons à avoir un impact positif sur la société.
- Indépendance : nous sommes à la recherche d’un.e candidat.e prêt.e à saisir cette opportunité et à faire preuve d’esprit entrepreneurial pour atteindre nos objectifs.
Comment postuler :
Veuillez envoyer votre curriculum vitae et une lettre d’accompagnement décrivant votre intérêt pour le poste et vos qualifications à : info@canadiantaxobservatory.ca. Veuillez indiquer « Économiste principal » dans l’objet de votre courriel.
Veuillez noter que les candidatures soumises via LinkedIn ne seront pas prises en considération.
La date de clôture des candidatures est fixée au 31 janvier 2026.
Engagement envers les milieux de travail et le recrutement inclusifs :
L’Observatoire canadien de la fiscalité s’engage à favoriser la diversité dans son milieu de travail et dans ses processus de recrutement. Nous encourageons les candidatures de personnes issues de tous les groupes racialisés, de toutes les identités de genre et de toutes les orientations sexuelles, des Autochtones, des personnes handicapées et de toutes les situations familiales. Des accommodements sont offerts sur demande aux candidat.e.s qui participent à toutes les étapes du processus de sélection.
Ce poste vous intéresse, mais vous ne répondez pas à toutes les exigences ? Des études démontrent que les groupes en quête d’équité, notamment les femmes, les personnes racialisées, les membres de la communauté 2ELGBTQI+ et les personnes ayant des capacités diverses, sont moins susceptibles de postuler à un emploi à moins de répondre à toutes les exigences. Si ce poste vous intéresse, mais que vous ne vous reconnaissez pas entièrement dans les exigences de l’offre, nous vous encourageons tout de même à postuler ou à nous contacter pour en savoir plus en envoyant un courriel.
Gasp! A contest on how to fund Vancouver transit improvements was won with three shocking words — sales tax hike
By Heather Scoffield | The Toronto Star
Three young women from the Vancouver area have just won a contest that would make government officials’ heads explode if they got wind of it.
Kiranjot Kaur Nahal, Khadija Rana and Jasleen Kaur Johal-Takhar responded to a call for ideas on how to pay for public transit improvements in Metro Vancouver, and they went out on a limb: they proposed a tax hike.
Just a little one, though: between 0.5 and 1 per cent added to the provincial sales tax for people in Vancouver.
Our tax conversation is dominated by calls to cut, and the debate is only around how much. With such a lopsided discourse, it’s no wonder most taxpayers say they feel overtaxed. Polling done a year ago for the Canada Revenue Agency showed that just seven per cent of respondents felt they paid too little.
Generally, bureaucrats scorn that kind of move. In the world of public finance, government revenues all flow into the same pot, and setting up artificial constructs to carve out amounts for special purposes is very inefficient indeed.
Administrators are not the only ones who look askance at the idea of bespoke taxes.
Many of the people the team tells about their pitch dismiss it out of hand, says Johal-Takhar. In fact, the trio itself had the same reaction to concept when they first started considering it as a way to ensure stable funding for transit.
“The three of us were apprehensive,” she said. “Sales tax has a negative reputation. We had a knee-jerk reaction.”
But being masters students at The University of British Columbia ’s School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, they put their research skills to work, looked harder and soon grew to embrace the idea — and eventually win $1,000.
The proposal works on many levels. It spreads the funding burden around. It provides a steady funding stream to a public good that will enable Vancouver’s world of work run more smoothly. It’s fairly simple to administer because it’s attached to an existing system.
And most importantly, the team hopes, it serves as a reminder to taxpayers exactly why they’re paying a small tax and what they get in return, turning their skepticism into support.
“There’s a tangible outcome to their taxes,” Johal-Takhar says.
And that’s the link we in Canada so often forget as we are repeatedly swept up in the political race to cut taxes indiscriminately as if they were a blight on society. The team struck at a disconnect in the public’s discourse on fiscal policy.
In the last federal election campaign, for example, the Conservatives promised an income-tax cut and then the Liberals quickly moved into that space too, hoping to neutralize the Conservative promise. The Liberal measure is expected to drain $27-billion from federal coffers.
And then came the elimination of the digital services tax, the cancellation of the consumer-facing carbon tax, and then, by the time we got to the Nov. 4 budget, the cancellation of luxury sales tax on yachts and fancy cars.
But the budget conversation was all about billions in new spending, investment and cuts — not tax revenue, where it should come from or who should pay. We seem to have forgotten that such revenue finances social supports, health care, infrastructure, training, defence, security and so many other programs that foster a stellar quality of life and a ripe investment climate in Canada.
Our tax conversation is dominated by calls to cut, and the debate is only around how much.
With such a lopsided discourse, it’s no wonder most taxpayers say they feel overtaxed. Polling done a year ago for the Canada Revenue Agency showed that just seven per cent of respondents felt they paid too little.
Back to the contest in Metro Vancouver.
To convince the judges of the contest run by advocacy group Movement that their idea was solid, the team knew it had to demonstrate that the public could actually be persuaded. Dogging them was a failed plebiscite 10 years ago to have the Vancouver region approve a 0.5 per cent increase to sales tax to fund infrastructure.
But similar votes in the U.S. asking citizens to weigh in directly on whether to increase taxes for public transit have proven largely successful, the team showed, pointing to Ohio and Arizona.
Indeed, the American Public Transportation Association shows that in the November 2024 election, 51 out of 61 proposals for public transit measures passed, leading to voter approval for $25 billion (U.S.) in transit improvements.
For sure, there are all sorts of reasons why American voters should not be compared to Canadians right now. And the advocates at Movement, while they plan to run with a version of the contest-winning tax idea, won’t go as far as pushing for a referendum on it.
The region has already indicated that it wants a new revenue tool for transit by 2027, says the advocacy group’s executive director, Denis Agar. For him, and for Johal-Takhar’s team, it’s not a question of “whether” but “how,” and they believe the best answer is a small increase to sales tax.
For the rest of us, their willingness to shout publicly about the direct links between taxation and services is a victory unto itself.
After a budget, a defection, a resignation, can the Liberals survive Monday’s vote?
By Heather Scoffield | The Toronto Star
In this episode of the “It’s Political” podcast, host Althia Raj talks to the Canadian Tax Observatory for an overview and analysis of the federal budget, before diving into the politics of it all. Heather Scoffield takes a look at what the budget means for the relationship between government and business, and what anxious regular Canadians are being asked to do: have patience.
Automatic tax filing: Welcome news for lower-income Canadians, but there’s more to do
By Gillian Petit | Institute for Research on Public Policy
Budget 2025 built on a previous announcement to transition to “automated federal benefits” to make it easier for Canadians to file tax returns and access financial benefits. Starting in the 2026 tax year, pre-filled tax returns will be available on the Canada Revenue Agency’s (CRA’s) My Account online filing system and automatically filed for about one million lower-income individuals with simple tax situations. This offering will be scaled up to about 5.5 million individuals for the 2028 tax year.
This commentary addresses four questions:
- How is automatic tax filing different from the current regime?
- Why do we need automatic tax filing?
- Where do barriers and complexity remain?
- Where is there room for improvement?
Mark Carney’s budget is a big bet. It will take years to see if it pays off
By Heather Scoffield | The Toronto Star
The news junkies who tend to drive political chatter have come away disappointed after Mark Carney’s first budget this week.
They (OK, we) were underwhelmed — there were no surprises, the budget was pretty much as advertised, and the previously-touted big sacrifices at the altar of economic overhaul were things we already knew were coming.
Here’s a news flash: the budget is not for the finance junkies, not really.
It’s for the public, and in this age of nasty U-turns, disruption and volatility, the predictable nature of Budget 2025 is one of its strongest points.
For a budget to have staying power, it’s not enough to wow those who are hooked on the adrenalin of receiving a list of shiny political objects.
Rather, a budget’s long-term success depends on bringing the public along, and building trust with the very households, corporations and organizations the government needs to implement its budget decisions.
That is especially true of this one.
A budget’s long-term success depends on bringing the public along, and building trust with the very households, corporations and organizations the government needs to implement its budget decisions.
Over the past few weeks, Carney let it be known that his first budget would dramatically ramp up defence spending, finance home-building, lean in to infrastructure and favour help for business over social programs.
He also primed the public for larger deficits and government layoffs.
But the work of building up the trust that will ensure this budget turns into a long-term plan to whip the Canadian economy into shape has only just begun. For this budget to truly succeed, Carney will need to marshal public support at every single step, because it’s not at all obvious that regular Canadians stand to benefit.
For one, the payoff for the public of this “supercharging” exercise (as the Liberals dubbed their revival plan for the economy) is a very long way away — even if everything goes according to plan.
As Carney and Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne pitch it, there’s a chain reaction that is required to face down the changed economic reality of 2025, and its foundations are in this week’s budget. It’s a big bet that requires a lot of moving parts to come together, with the hope that the benefits will eventually flow to all corners of the Canadian economy.
First, the government borrows billions of dollars for capital investment.
The deficit balloons, and the government uses that money and money already baked into the fiscal framework to pull together almost $500-billion in cash, tax breaks, lending and long-term commitments, all in an effort to expand the ability of the Canadian economy to produce goods and services.
Then, it sets up new structures or reforms old structures, streamlines regulations, absorbs some risk and spices up tax incentives to get that money out into the world.
At that point, the private sector is expected to step up with $500-billion of their own, investing to take advantage of the opportunities the government has fostered.
Along the way, the companies and government entities leading the way on “supercharging” will presumably hire people, pay them good wages, enhance their training and boost everyone’s productivity.
That’s the plan anyway.
“The short-term effect of those projects is thousands of good jobs in construction, the trades and logistics,” Carney said Wednesday in a post-budget news conference at a public transit yard in Ottawa. “The longer-term effect is high-paying fulfilling careers with recurring contracts year after year. That is what a trillion dollars in investment builds.”
The end goal is a Canadian economy that is less dependent on the United States, more efficient and competitive around the world, and able to resume a steady pace of growth.
This is a far cry from the Keynesian approach to economic revival that we are familiar with, and that Canadians at least sort of believe has worked in the past
The era of government spending on job creation, directly using its spending power to juice up consumption and economic activity, has been replaced — in Canada and elsewhere — by a morphing definition of industrial policy that takes aim at leveraging private sector investment to boost productivity.
“Industrial policy, once seen as secondary to market forces, is returning to the forefront,” the budget confirms.
Regular Canadians could benefit if and when the new-found productivity produces jobs, higher wages and broad economic growth.
Carney had some thoughtful remarks about this approach to economic policy when he was in Asia a few days before tabling the budget. With geopolitics and technology fundamentally changing the way the world works, clinging to the economic equations of the past won’t suffice.
“At the core of this will be a new partnership between government and business at the service of our fellow citizens,” he said.
The central bank is down for the supply-side, productivity-enhancing approach too.
“We’ve over-relied on priming demand and not spent enough time on the tougher decisions of structural reform and making the investments that we need to actually grow the economy over the long term,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in an interview with Bloomberg at the end of September.
That appears to be what Carney is banking on. And for sure, this could all happen and the prime minister’s plan could work. We can hope.
But it could just as easily not happen, especially since investors have not responded en masse in the past to many years of incentivizing, competitive taxation, subsidies and blatant pleading of all kinds.
That’s where government building trust with the public becomes essential. The rewards of this plan, if they materialize as hoped, are far off in the distance. We don’t really know who will reap the benefits or how — or even whether — they will trickle down. The subtext of Carney’s budget is “please be patient.”
The public is being asked to trust that Carney’s plan will prompt investors to change course, put billions of dollars into changing how Canada’s economy works, and stick around for the long term.
It’s an enormous ask, even if Carney hasn’t spelled it out clearly.
In the lead-up to the budget, Carney took the rare step of addressing Canadians on prime-time television, warning us that we will be asked to make sacrifices.
He took some political heat in the days after that speech for not naming those sacrifices.
The obvious answer is that he was referring to the budget’s cuts to the public service. But there’s a more subtle answer contained in the budget that applies more broadly: an economy that will see no growth this year.
Economic growth in Canada was already tepid in recent years. But the tariff battle with the United States has erased even that growth, setting Canada on a growth trajectory that is 1.8 per cent below where it would have been.
That’s unless we do things very differently, and that process has only just begun.
Canadians don’t yet know who will be paying the price for the change in geopolitics that is roiling us, beyond the workers in the industries that have been hit hard and directly by American tariffs. We haven’t yet had the difficult political conversation about how to cushion the blow for those who are side-swiped and how to share the wealth of those who prosper.
Despite what pundits may say, Carney and Champagne were wise to ease the public into their plan by rolling it out piece by piece before budget day was upon us.
But preparing the public was only one step of many. They will also have to sustain their trust-building measures for the long term if they want to both persuade private investors to find $500 billion and put it to good use in Canada, and for voters give them time to set Canada on a new path.
In his speech in Asia, Carney had some other “wise words” that he meant as advice to world leaders but could be applied to his own government right now.
He quoted an Indonesian leader who said, according to Carney: “Growth that excludes is growth that divides …. Division causes instability, and instability is not conduce to peace and prosperity.”
Carney added: “And we’re here, of course, for peace and prosperity.”
Yes, we are. But that’s going to mean some long, hard work by government and business alike to build trust. It’s a complex bet on how to fix Canada’s future that has only just begun to take shape.
Carney’s first budget: a trillion-dollar investment goal propped up by capital spending
By Heather Scoffield
Mark Carney promised us the world in the lead-up to his first budget as prime minister – a generational, Canada-first plan that would set us all up for a prosperous future.
What he delivered was HIS world.
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Investment—driven by the government, and then partly paid for by the private sector if things go according to plan—is at the centre of the November 4 document that boasts it will inject $1 trillion into the economy to bolster growth and productivity over the next five years.
Half of that is paid for by government: there’s $500 billion in government money for infrastructure, defence, home building and other business initiatives, earmarked with the sole purpose of driving an equal amount of investment from the private sector.
By the numbers:
- Expected tax revenue in fiscal year 2025-26: $426.2 billion
- Expected tax revenue by fiscal year 2029-30: $479.8 billion
- Total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP in 2025-26: 13.4%
- Total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP in 2029-30: 13%
Clearly, Carney is not afraid to use the country’s balance sheet to meet the goal.
What’s surprising, perhaps, is his timid use of tax as a tool in this effort—even though taxation is usually one of the first things finance ministers turn to when they’re trying to prod the economy into action. Most of the investment incentives come in the form of capital spending.
They didn’t do nothing on the tax front. Here are some of the main, new tax measures meant to drive growth, productivity and investment in a hurry:
- The tax star of the day is the “productivity super-deduction,” which will allow businesses to write off a broader scope of capital costs more quickly, and is meant to address the competitiveness gap between Canada and the United States. It means about $1.5 billion in foregone revenue over the next five years, and is expected to make a difference to the manufacturing sector and liquified natural gas in particular.
It’s targeted, it doesn’t break the bank and it ensures Canada’s investment terrain remains competitive with the United States.
- Research and development gets a boost too, by expanding access to the Scientific Research and Experimental Development tax incentive, worth almost $300 million over five years.
- For climate, the budget foresees entrenching investment tax credits and extending the timespan for the carbon capture and storage credit to 2035.
- Critical minerals get a tax-related boost through a new provision allowing for flow-through shares which allow shareholders to claim exploration credits that would normally go to corporations.
For regular people and consumers, the budget is mostly a story of removing rather than adding new measures.
- The luxury tax on fancy boats and aircraft, imposed by the previous incarnation of Liberals to target the rich, has been cancelled in the name of helping the aviation and boating industries. The feds will forego $135 million over five years for this.
- The underused housing tax, initially meant to discourage foreigners from buying Canadian houses and driving up prices, has been cancelled in the name of efficiency. The cost is $150 million over five years.
- The budget adds some details around how it plans to remove the burden of filing taxes for those with low income and simple tax situations. The government’s auto-filing plan was announced last month, and the budget explains how it will work. If a low-income person hasn’t filed taxes in the last three years, the Canada Revenue Agency will do it for them based on the information it has. There’s an opt-out provision and an appeal process, and it starts this taxation year – pending changes to legislation.
All in all, the government initiatives are meant to re-orient the Canadian economy to better deal with an unpredictable United States by lighting a productivity fire underneath Canadian companies and encouraging them to expand their focus to global markets.
And we hope those efforts are successful.
But in the meantime, it’s worth paying attention to the chart and table on page 7 of the Impacts Report stuffed at the back of the main budget document. Poverty, the numbers show, is slowly on the rise, especially among single people, lone-parent families and racialized populations.
“These groups often face systemic barriers to financial security, making them more vulnerable to financial instability, food insecurity, and lack of adequate affordable housing,” the report states.
An economic plan that is meant to boldly steer Canada in a different direction can’t do so if it forgets about that 10 per cent of the population.
Baseball metaphors aside, this budget will be game-changing
By Heather Scoffield
By this time next week, the World Series will be behind us and pundits across the land will be liberated from using tortured and gratuitous baseball metaphors to explain and enlighten every element of their thinking.
Instead, we’ll be able to move from the metaphorical to the metaphysical, since we will at last have solid information to work with in the form of the much-anticipated federal budget.
The budget will be a detailed look into Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plans to invigorate the Canadian economy and position it for a new era in a world that is unpredictable, sometimes hostile, and promises far less momentum than we’re used to.
The backdrop to next week’s budget is harsh, and this morning’s smattering of economic news reminds us of some disturbing trends. Statistics Canada reports that Canada’s economy contracted 0.3 per cent in August, erasing July’s gains and setting the third quarter up for essentially no growth. And CN Rail, one of Canada’s largest companies, says it is scaling back its capital investment plans by $600 million.
What Carney does or doesn’t do on taxation is central, of course, since tax pays for public services and serves as a tool to engineer the economy – rewarding some behaviours and discouraging others.
Statistics Canada reports that Canada’s economy contracted 0.3 per cent in August, erasing July’s gains and setting the third quarter up for essentially no growth. And CN Rail, one of Canada’s largest companies, says it is scaling back its capital investment plans by $600 million.
What I’ll be watching for in the 2025 federal budget
Fresh results
For the fiscal year that ended in March 2024, the federal government collected $382 billion from Canadians through personal income tax, corporate tax, goods and services tax, excise duties and other smaller taxes.
Federal tax in 2023-24 amounted to 13.0 per cent of Canada’s GDP, which is fairly average over the course of the past few decades but higher than the 11.4 per cent collected in fiscal 2011-12 and lower than the 14.4 per cent in fiscal 2000-01.
What was fiscal 2024-25 like? The Finance Department has been sitting on those numbers but will need to show its hand in the budget.
Fresh forecasts
Forecasting federal tax intake and revenue flows is tricky at the best of times, but the numbers form the basis of projections not just in government but in the private sector as well. The last update came almost a year ago, but that is an eternity in fiscal terms. Since then, Carney has cut income tax and eliminated the digital services tax, and the economy has slowed. With the added volatility of today’s economic environment, the budget’s view on tax intake for the next five years will be interesting indeed.
Investment
Unleashing – or “catalyzing,” to use Carney’s language – private sector capital investment has been a key focus of the prime minister from the get-go and is likely to be a central theme of Tuesday’s budget. Tax measures can be an important tool, but not all tax incentives are created equal. Some corporate leaders are clamoring for an across-the-board corporate tax cut. But others are more focused in their ask, hoping for capital-cost allowances to be accelerated, broadened and made more permanent to better compete with American provisions.
Auto-filing
In a streak of pre-announcements highlighting what to expect in the budget, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne committed to pre-filling tax returns for 1 million low-income taxpayers in the 2026 tax year so that they can receive more government benefits. They’re aiming for up to 5.5 million people by the end of 2028. It’s a significant, positive step that could be material for low-income Canadians who aren’t accessing all the benefits to which they’re entitled. The details about how this program works will be important. Will the new system be fully automatic? How will the government persuade reluctant filers to come on board?
Affordability
Recent polling shows that Canadians are preoccupied with the cost of living and economic stability, and the tax measures in the budget would be an opportune way for Carney to meet people where they’re at – tempting for a minority government that struggles at times to show compassion. What will that look like and how will those measures be paid for?
Party favours
What tax incentives for favourite sectors or demographics will be hidden away in the appendices? Every budget is deeply political, and this one will be no different.
Corporate tax review
The Liberal election platform committed to a wholesale review of the corporate tax system based on “transparency, simplicity, sustainability and competitiveness.” Will this budget spell out a process?
Whether Carney’s foundational budget swings for the fences, chalks up some base hits, strikes out, or hands the Conservatives the opportunity for a walk-off home run, the details will matter to the pocketbooks and the prosperity of regular Canadians.
Go Jays!
Yes, Canada needs investment. No, slashing corporate tax rates is not the answer
Those of us who make a habit of sifting through government speeches and documents in search of clues for the upcoming federal budget can safely assume: this year, it’s all about investment.
And that makes sense. Investment was a central theme in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s election campaign as well as the focus of major legislation and government initiatives since.
He reiterated his goal again on Wednesday night in a key pre-budget speech, committing to a budget that would “catalyze unprecedented investments.”
More importantly, business investment has been dragging in Canada for many years, and now, in the face of a reordering of the global economy and an unpredictable trade war with our closest economic partner, Canada really needs to do something about it.
The assumptions should end there though.
Improving Canada’s investment track record is anything but straightforward. The policy solutions aren’t as simple as slashing the corporate tax rate in the name of “tax competitiveness” with the United States, and assuming business investment in Canada will follow.
For one, that’s not been our recent history.
Improving Canada’s investment track record is anything but straightforward. The policy solutions aren’t as simple as slashing the corporate tax rate in the name of “tax competitiveness” with the United States, and assuming business investment in Canada will follow.
Canada’s tax regime was considered more competitive than the United States for many years, and then roughly on par until recently. But business investment did not boom. It did exactly the opposite.
Nowadays, the spectre of Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) hovers over Canadian investment intentions, with its many, many tax measures designed to flatter American taxpayers.
And like everything that happens in U.S. economic policy, there are implications of the OBBBA for Canada. Canadian companies and cross-border investors are busy digging through the details of the massive $3.7-trillion (US) bill to figure out how to take advantage of the new rules.
And in the meantime, corporate leaders in Canada are urging governments on this side of the border to cut the corporate tax rate.
The thing is, Canada’s overall tax competitiveness is still in ok shape, at least according to a recent, thorough and fairly orthodox comparison of tax regimes among rich countries of the world. The U.S.-based Tax Foundation’s International Tax Competitiveness Index 2025 released last month put Canada at 13th place out of 38 countries, while the United States places 15th.
At the same time, Trump’s erratic approach to tariffs acts much like an unpredictable tax on investment that makes Canada’s relative stability look enticing.
Regardless, there are myriad elements that influence decisions to expand in Canada. Research into Canada’s lacklustre business investment frequently looks at all sorts of things: propensity to innovate; availability of capital, labour, skills, infrastructure and, natural resources; our productivity rates; community; access to foreign markets….and on and on.
Corporate tax is just one of many factors.
Still, if there’s one area where the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has squeezed Canada, it’s the treatment of depreciation. The Act significantly enhances immediate write-downs and makes them permanent.
And if there’s one type of tax that Canada could use effectively to directly target and encourage investment, it’s the treatment of depreciation. Capital cost allowance is a tax deduction that allows businesses to write off their depreciable assets over time, and Canada has recently moved toward permanent and accelerated write-downs for some types of property.
But Canada’s provisions are not as broad as in the United States, nor are they as predictable.
If it’s investment that Carney is after, then he’s better off targeting it directly through the accelerated capital cost allowance regime – and not simply hope that a correlation between corporate tax rates and investment that has been unreliable in the past will suddenly be successful.
To put it mildly: that would not be a safe assumption.